The “obvious solution” is not obvious when you see through the lens of second-order effects.
1) The “strongest helmet” myth
There is a Chinese company that claims it produces the strongest helmet, marketed as the safest helmet.
When people see those helmets, they often say:
“This is a great innovation when it comes to safety”
But in reality, if a rider meets with an accident and the helmet hits a hard surface, the helmet must break at some point.
Why?
Because when too much pressure is applied, if the helmet doesn’t break, the injury can become fatal.
That’s because the force will get transferred to the rider’s head instead of being absorbed by the helmet.
In most helmets, the force is absorbed by the helmet material. And if the impact is too strong, the helmet cracks or breaks—which may look “weak,” but it can actually reduce the damage to the head
So sometimes, a helmet breaking is not failure—it’s part of how safety works
2) The mongoose experiment in Amami Island, Japan
When the Japanese government wanted to reduce the snake population on Amami Island, they came up with what seemed like an obvious plan.
What did they do?
They released around 30 small Indian mongooses on the island to get rid of the snakes.
But even after 25 years, the snake population wasn’t reduced. Instead, they ended up facing one more problem.
Why?
Because the snakes on the island are nocturnal, meaning they come out at night and remain hidden during the day.
Mongooses, however, are mostly active during the daytime.
So there was almost no chance of confrontation between the mongooses and the snakes.
Instead, the mongooses started feeding on native birds, eggs, and small animals—making the situation even worse.
Once the government realized this, they had to focus on removing the mongooses, instead of letting them breed and increase in number.
This scenario serves as a cautionary tale about introducing invasive species as a “solution,” because the consequences can become bigger than the original problem.
Takeaway:
1. Don’t solve problems using only first-order effects.
Whenever you want to solve a problem, don’t go with the first-order effect alone. Step back and think about the second-order effects—the unintended consequences.
2. In complex systems, harm is not proportional.
In the island case, releasing just 30 small Indian mongooses may seem harmless until the consequences of that action explode over time.
3. Via negativa
Instead of adding something new to solve a problem, go for subtraction:
a) Remove the food source (rats, frogs)
Keep the area trash-free and manage clean water properly.
b) Strengthen barriers and control tools
Use electric fences and pitfall traps.
c) Spray natural repellent oils near residential areas & grow plant-based repellents like tobacco
“Obvious” solutions are mostly obvious to people who don’t pay the consequences.
Note: Thanks to Nassim Nicholas Taleb